The ballots are cast. The polls have closed. So now what?
The Orange County Registrar of Voters will begin to update its website with primary election results beginning today around 8 p.m. It will be updated again at 9:30 p.m., 10 p.m., and 10:30 p.m., with the latter being the night’s final unofficial results update from in-person voting, according to the Registrar’s schedule. The first post-Election Day update will come at 5 p.m. Wednesday on the Registrar’s website.
The Register, at ocregister.com, will provide regular, live updates online along with reactions from candidates and experts.
As in all California primaries, the top two candidates move on to November’s general elections. However, county education races will be final after Tuesday. Also, for some county positions — such as Sheriff and District Attorney — the election could be decided tomorrow if a candidate receives more than 50% of the primary vote.
But don’t expect winners for every race to be determined as early as Tuesday night. Ballot counting can take several days or weeks to complete. While some candidates may secure large enough leads early on to be determined the winner, other races may take more time before someone emerges victorious.
“It’s incredibly tempting and totally understandable to want to know the results as soon as possible. But the best thing to do is to calm down, check-in at the end of the night, and then get some sleep,” Dan Schnur, a USC politics professor, told the Register. “There’s nothing you can do overnight that will change the results by the time you wake up Wednesday morning.”
Aside from election winners, what else should we pay attention to as the returns begin to trickle in Tuesday?
Voter turnout
As of Monday, nearly 278,000 vote-by-mail ballots in Orange County had been returned out of the more than 1.8 million issued.
Nearly 116,000 of those returned ballots came from registered Democrats; about 103,400 were from registered Republican voters.
For context, more than 635,000 Orange County residents (about 43% of registered voters) voted in the 2018 primary elections. More than 404,000 ballots were sent by mail with nearly 223,000 ballots cast at precincts.
Republicans used to have a “considerable advantage” with mail voting — however, that changed with former President Donald Trump who consistently warned that voting by mail was dangerous and could lead to fraud, according to Schnur.
“It’s worth assuming that county and state Republican parties are making even more of a vote-by-mail effort than they did two years ago. What we don’t know is whether Republican voters are listening or not,” Schnur said.
Historically, during midterm elections, the party that does not control the White House fares better.
But without any competitive races driving the top of the statewide ballot — and with no statewide ballot measures up during the primary election — voter turnout is expected to be low and not necessarily reflective of the actual makeup of the county, experts warned.
“There are multiple candidates running for both governor and senator, but neither (Gov. Gavin) Newsom nor (U.S. Sen. Alex) Padilla is in very much danger,” Schnur said. “Given more competitive statewide races, you might see greater motivation and higher turnout. But that’s not the case this year.”
Changing demographics
Aside from just how voters cast their ballots, the racial makeup of Orange County can also impact Tuesday’s elections — as well as those later in the year.
An influx of Latino voters has shifted the county toward becoming more of a Democratic stronghold, according to Paul Mitchell, vice president of the Political Data Inc. firm. And younger Asian voters tend to be more progressive than older generations — who were very anti-communist and pro-Ronald Reagan — cutting into the GOP voting bloc even further.
“It sets the stage for a county that has been voting Democratic in the last presidential elections,” Mitchell said. “It just has been voting differently than it did 20-30 years ago.”
But low turnout is not representative of the county as a whole, and Mitchell warned early returns suggested a lower percentage of Latino voters have returned ballots.
“We’ll be able to see these numbers as they develop, but right now, they’re developing a picture of the electorate which is really not what you see when you walk out of your house in California,” he said. “It’s a much more affluent, White, suburban — and that means generally more conservative — electorate.”
Driving issues
Issues such as inflation and crime are dominant themes heading into the primary, according to Mitchell. But with the U.S. Supreme Court poised to potentially decide cases affecting access to abortion or guns, those driving concerns could change before November’s general election.
And high prices at the pump aren’t just affecting wallets; they influence elections as well, experts said.
“One of the most reliable indicators of voter turnout might be the price of gasoline on the sign on the corner,” Schnur said. “The out party is generally more motivated in a midterm election; during times of economic difficulty, that trend becomes even more noticeable. It looks as if Democrats are going to have a particularly challenging time motivating their base to turn out.”
Another unique facet of the primary: This is the first election based on recently redrawn political maps, meaning some incumbents are trying to reach a different group of voters than who they have previously faced.
“It is one of the reasons Young Kim is spending so heavily in her primary, and one of the reasons Mike Levin is spending what is more than would normally be the case in his,” Schnur said of two incumbent congressional candidates up for re-election.
Vote Centers will open Tuesday from 7 a.m. to 8 p.m. Locations can be found at ocvote.gov. For questions or concerns, contact the Orange County Registrar’s Office at 714-567-7600.
Mail ballots can be returned through the U.S. Postal Service and must be postmarked by June 7. Ballots also can be left at an official drop box during voting hours.
Source: Orange County Register
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