For decades, world-renowned seismologist Lucy Jones has pored over earthquake data and made recommendations to policymakers about how communities could better prepare for the Big One.
In some respects, Jones believes, Southern Californians are better off today than 30 years ago when the 6.7-magnitude Northridge earthquake jolted many Angelenos out of bed in the early morning hours of Jan. 17, 1994.
That quake, the costliest in U.S. history, killed dozens of people – 72 are believed to have died, including from heart attacks — while about 9,000 people were injured. The quake buckled freeways and left billions of dollars in damage to homes, businesses, hospitals, parks, roadways and utilities. One estimate placed the damage at $25 billion.
After the destructive temblor, the state adopted new building codes which Jones called a “significant improvement” over previous standards.
Along with that, “in the past decade, we’ve accomplished quite a bit in earthquake retrofitting,” she said during an interview this month. “Those are going to make a really big difference.”
But while the state’s building codes prevent structures from collapsing – thereby saving lives – the standards aren’t high enough to prevent damage, Jones said. In other words, in a big enough earthquake, a structure may not completely crumble, but there could be enough damage that it would have to demolished.
And when buildings or infrastructure are badly damaged, that could mean not being able to return to a home or office, not having access to power or water, or being cut off from roadways or transportation systems – scenarios that could spell catastrophe for a neighborhood or the local economy and stymie recovery efforts.
“We’ve done a very good job about reducing the life risks — but not about the financial risks” of earthquakes, Jones said.
In 2016 she founded the Dr. Lucy Jones Center for Science and Society in Southern California after retiring from the U.S. Geological Survey, where she worked as a seismologist for more than 30 years and where she developed the methodology the state uses to issue earthquake advisories.
At the USGS, Jones also led the famous 2008 Great Southern California ShakeOut study, in which scientists tried to explain what would happen if a magnitude 7.8 quake hit the southern San Andreas Fault. The fault “runs deep near and under some of California’s most populated areas,” according to the California Earthquake Authority, traveling beneath Desert Hot Springs, San Bernardino, Wrightwood and Palmdale — and winds along the north side of the San Gabriel Mountains in L.A. County.
USGS scientists at the time, more than 15 years ago, said a quake that huge could cause 1,800 deaths and 50,000 injuries requiring emergency room care. The study noted that the final death toll could rise if damaged hospitals couldn’t operate or if people couldn’t get to emergency rooms due to destroyed or disrupted streets and transportation. What’s more, a quake that size could lead to 1,600 fires and $200 billion or more in economic losses.
Jones noted that under the 2008 ShakeOut scenario, 1% of buildings in the area would collapse, 8% would be red-tagged as unfit for habitation and 40% would be yellow-tagged with limited access.
Today, she wants state officials to further strengthen California’s building codes to prevent more damage. Raising the standards would increase overall construction costs to build in California by 1%, Jones estimates.
“It’s not very much, is it?” she asked rhetorically.
According to the seismologist, Los Angeles lost 49,000 housing units, mostly apartments, due to the Northridge quake. Many of the buildings were so badly damaged that they were demolished, she said.
As more time passes and memories of the 1994 Northridge quake recede from Angelenos’ minds, Jones worries that people aren’t giving enough attention to the potentially devastating impacts of a major earthquake.
“I think they’re way too relaxed,” Jones said.
There is hope yet.
Since the first ShakeOut drill in 2008, the earthquake preparedness exercise has become an annual event. In 2023, millions of people in government buildings, businesses, schools and elsewhere throughout Southern California took part in a “drop, cover and hold on” statewide drill.
Jones hopes actions like the ShakeOut drills will keep conversations about earthquake preparedness front and center.
“It does help,” she said. “It keeps people thinking about quakes.”
Source: Orange County Register
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