While Gov. Gavin Newsom survived the September recall by the exact same margin of his landslide election of 2018 — 61.9% to 38.1% — an examination of recall voting patterns in Orange County shows the Democratic governor gained local support over the past three years, despite local Republicans playing a big role in trying to oust him.
But for every data point in the recall results that might offer a hint about the 2022 midterms, another emerges that simply raises more questions.
For example: In the recall, Newsom managed to flip four local cities that voted against him in 2018, according to a precinct-level analysis of voting results. And local voter participation far outpaced the statewide rate, with Orange County voters casting recall ballots at a higher rate than even the high-turnout midterm elections of 2018.
Such high turnout could signal hope in 2022 for Democrats, both locally and beyond, since Orange County increasingly is viewed as one of the nation’s most telling political battlegrounds.
But in some hotly contested local districts, such as GOP Rep. Michelle Steel’s CA-48, voters clearly rejected Newsom.
His would-be replacement, conservative radio host Larry Elder, also drew significantly more support locally than he did at statewide. The result suggests that even though voter registration in Orange County now favors Democrats over both Republicans and No Party Preference, the county also is home to a solid contingent of voters who support former President Donald Trump’s brand of Republicanism.
Graeme Boushey, a political science professor at UC Irvine, believes Elder’s O.C. showing sets up a dilemma for the local GOP. In the midterms, should the party back Trump-style candidates who can animate a reliable voting base? Or should it promote more moderate candidates who might win over an increasingly purple county?
“It’ll be an interesting test case for the open primary,” Boushey said.
Newsom support grows
The county did differ from the state in the recall, just as it did when Newsom was first sent to office three years ago.
In 2018, Orange County voters narrowly chose Newsom over GOP challenger John Cox, by a scant 50.1% vs. 49.9%, much less than the statewide margin of nearly 14 points. In the recall, which many viewed largely as a referendum on Newsom’s response to the coronavirus pandemic, local support for the governor was a little stronger: 51.7% voted to keep him in office.
That bodes well for Newsom next year, said Fred Smoller, political science professor at Chapman University.
“In order for Republicans to win statewide office, they need to win big in Orange County to offset losses in Los Angeles and San Francisco,” he said. Since Newsom narrowly won Orange County, Smoller said, “I expect he will be reelected.
“However, $6-a-gallon gas, or a calamity like the failure of the power grid, could take him out.”
Of Orange County’s 34 cities, 27 were more strongly in favor of keeping Newsom in office this year than they were about electing him in 2018.
Four cities that voted narrowly against Newsom in 2018 narrowly supported him this time: Cypress, Seal Beach, Lake Forest and Westminster, which is at the center of Little Saigon. The governor’s support grew in precincts that cover Little Saigon, despite that community swinging heavily toward Trump in 2020.
Seventeen cities and unincorporated Orange County voted against Newsom both times. But he gained support in 15 of those cities, with some of the biggest increases in Yorba Linda and Brea — both cities in GOP Rep. Young Kim’s heavily contested 39th District.
Newsom performed worse this year in Huntington Beach and Newport Beach, which are at the heart of CA-48. More than 52% of voters in that district supported recalling the governor.
Among cities that backed Newsom in both elections, his support grew the most in Laguna Woods and La Palma, while he lost some support in Costa Mesa, Santa Ana, Laguna Beach, Aliso Viejo and Stanton.
Of course, redistricting is coming before the 2022 elections. While that won’t change any city boundaries, it will set new borders for every other voting district and could substantially shift partisan dynamics.
So far, pre-draft maps eyed by California’s Citizens Redistricting Commission show new boundaries that would likely shore up incumbents in all four of Orange County’s heavily watched Congressional districts. But final boundaries could look quite different, with official draft maps expected Nov. 10.
Replacement candidates cause confusion
Ahead of the September election, the Newsom campaign urged Californians to vote “no” on the recall and to leave the second question — who should replace him if the recall succeeded — blank.
Whether people took that advice or were just confused about the process, many voters (40% statewide; 33% in Orange County) did leave that second question blank. Locally, ballots with blanks on Question 2 were more common in areas where more people voted against the recall.
Among Orange County residents who cast a vote for a replacement candidate, Elder was the clear choice. In a field of 46 candidates, he won 57% of the vote countywide (compared with 48.4% statewide) and was the top pick in all 34 Orange County cities.
However, if “blank” had been a candidate, it would have beaten Elder in 13 cities: Anaheim, Buena Park, Fullerton, Garden Grove, Irvine, La Habra, La Palma, Laguna Beach, Laguna Woods, Santa Ana, Stanton, Tustin and Westminster.
Countywide, Democrat Kevin Paffrath came in second place with just over 8% of the vote and Republican Kevin Faulconer came in third with just under 8%.
As evidence that confusion played at least some role in the recall vote: In addition to the 381,000 Orange County residents who didn’t vote for any replacement candidate, almost 2,600 picked more than one candidate, invalidating their vote on that question. Also, another 61 voters marked both “yes” and “no” on the basic recall question.
Boushey said the unique nature of recall elections — with multiple names and multiple options to complete a ballot — is one reason why he doesn’t see the September vote as a clear harbinger of the 2022 midterms.
Turnout remains solid
Successful recalls often depend on one factor: low voter turnout. People who want to kick an elected official out of office are highly motivated to cast ballots, while people satisfied with the status quo are not.
That dynamic didn’t come into play for the recall. While special election turnout typically peaks at about 33%, nearly six in ten registered voters (58.5%) in California cast ballots in the September recall. In Orange County, turnout was 62.9%.
While 2018 turnout was higher (71%) in Orange County, more people actually voted in the recall: 1.14 million vs. 1.12 million. This year’s lower percentage reflects the simple fact that there are about 250,000 more registered voters now than there were three years ago, following record-setting participation in the heated 2020 presidential election.
But there was a strong correlation between Orange County precincts with high turnout and precincts that supported ousting the governor. In precincts where turnout was 70% or higher, about 55% of voters wanted to recall Newsom, but where turnout was 56% or lower, only about 37% of voters supported the recall.
That suggests Republicans could have claimed a symbolic local victory if they had managed to turn out more voters.
Some 87,000 local Republicans didn’t vote in the recall, Fred Whitaker, chair of the Republican Party of Orange County, noted during a Monday night roundtable on election integrity.
“We lose elections by self suppression,” he said.
For 2022, Garrett Fahy, O.C. chair of the Republican National Lawyers Association, said, “The moral of the story … is vote early by voting by mail.”
Local Republicans traditionally have been more likely than Democrats to vote by mail. But that pattern flipped in 2020 after Trump and other GOP leaders cast doubt about the integrity of mail-in voting.
And in Orange County that played out in the recall, where a Southern California News Group analysis of election data found a slight correlation between in-person voters and support for ousting Newsom. In precincts where in-person voting was higher than average, 52% wanted to recall him, while in precincts where it was lower, only 45% supported the recall.
That said, voting in person wasn’t popular. Almost 89% of people who voted in the recall did so by mail, versus just 11% who showed up in person.
“Vote by mail is here to stay,” Smoller said.
Source: Orange County Register
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