It’s been just over a year since California’s U.S. Senate race kicked off, and the top four candidates for the open seat are facing one of their biggest tests yet Monday, Jan. 22: their first debate.
The televised event is the first time voters will be able to really compare, side-by-side, not just these top candidates, but also the three Democratic House members in the race for the seat long held by Sen. Dianne Feinstein, who died Sept. 29.
It’s a time for Reps. Adam Schiff, Barbara Lee and Katie Porter to differentiate their campaigns, not only on their voting records but on how they present their agendas and themselves. And it’s an opportunity for former Dodgers star Steve Garvey, a later entrant into the race, to reintroduce himself to voters.
“To me, it’s one of the most critical nights of the primary campaign,” said Aimee Allison, the founder of She the People, a national organization that elevates the political role of women of color.
“Depending on how what is said resonates with voters, it will help to define what the (top two) of the field is,” she said.
Hosted by Fox 11 Los Angeles, Politico and the USC Dornsife Center for the Political Future, the debate comes about two weeks before California voters will receive their primary ballots in the mail.
And it’s an election year that’s rife with uncertainty — like the Republican presidential frontrunner’s continued legal issues, a war in the Middle East that has ramifications back home and a widespread dismal outlook on the state of the economy.
Going into the debate, it’s Schiff, a Burbank Democrat, who maintains a substantial lead over the rest of the field, according to a recent Emerson College poll that found his support rising. Garvey, coming in second, has also seen a boost in support, whereas Porter and Lee have remained stagnant.
“Schiff has a lot of luxury here because he is a clear frontrunner, and he has the most money going through the end,” said Rob Stutzman, a GOP strategist who served in the Schwarzenegger administration.
Schiff may, Stutzman predicted, be most interested in elevating Garvey through the primary — banking on Democrats to push him through in November.
The Israel-Hamas war
Allison says “pocketbook” issues — the cost of groceries, housing affordability, rent prices — are far and away the No. 1 concern among the network of women she works with and voters she interacts with.
But the Israel-Hamas war, too, is particularly important, especially for women of color, she said.
Lee has championed the anti-war stance, maybe predictably so; she famously was the only member of Congress who voted against authorizing military force after the 9/11 terrorist attacks.
The Oakland Democrat was one of the first to call for an immediate and permanent ceasefire in Gaza — where Israel has launched a bruising offensive since the Oct. 7 terrorist attack and kidnapping of civilian hostages by Hamas.
The issue is teed up for Lee, said Matt Lesenyie, a political science professor at Cal State Long Beach, as she is in this unique position to set herself apart and highlight how tax dollars are spent on foreign wars.
Schiff, on the other hand, has ardently argued that Israel “has a right and duty to defend itself.” He’s supported humanitarian relief to Gaza while also calling for “an end to terrorist rule” in the region.
That support lost him the support of Burbank Mayor Konstantine Anthony, who is now backing Lee. (Still, Schiff has the endorsement of prominent Democrats, like former Speaker Nancy Pelosi.)
Porter, though, has tried to stake out a more middle-ground approach. In December, she called for a “lasting bilateral ceasefire in Gaza,” saying the U.S. should push for that outcome.
Just a few days before the debate, Garvey spent time meeting with members of the Bay Area Jewish community. But like other policy issues, voters may look to the debate for Garvey to lay out a more detailed position on Israel, and he’ll need to come across as thoughtful and credible while not having the political background to underscore his message.
“I don’t know if voters take their Israeli conflict advice from a baseball player,” said Lesenyie.
The Trump card
Aside from introducing himself to voters, the debate stage may be where Garvey needs to unequivocally decide where he lands on former President Donald Trump.
In a recent interview with Politico, Garvey, who played 14 seasons with the Dodgers before he finished with the San Diego Padres for five seasons, walked a line between kowtowing to the embattled former president and criticizing him. He suggested he could back President Joe Biden in November, telling the outlet: “Nobody’s out of bounds because I’m looking at each individual soul separately.”
If he can hold onto it, it might be a good strategy.
“If he wants to be interesting in November in a state like California, he needs to keep a distance from Trump like he’s established,” said Stutzman.
That approach could lead to Trump backing Eric Early, another Republican in the race who didn’t qualify for the debate. (Early and Democratic contender Christina Pascucci issued a joint news release blasting debate organizers for their exclusion.)
But even so, Stutzman says, Garvey has more name ID than Early, and with Garvey’s ability to get in front of voters from their television screens, a Trump stamp of approval may not matter.
Boiling it all down
Schiff can be successful Monday night if he can maintain the status quo — and if that rise in polling data translates in the primary election.
He’s got widespread labor endorsements, and yes, he’s considered possibly the least progressive of the Democrats, but that’s not going to change Monday night — nor should it. The goal, at least according to Lesenyie, should be to keep appealing to donors and Central Valley moderates.
Porter could use the debate stage to attack Garvey to propel her into the top two in the primary, said Lesenyie.
And pointing back to the economic issues she hears about frequently, Allison says the debate could be the time for Lee to highlight another contrast between her and Schiff: her approach to “economic justice” as a solution to the hardships Californians feel. (While She the People has not endorsed a primary candidate, Allison backs Lee.)
But Stutzman says it may be time for Lee and Porter to coalesce, giving voters just one progressive choice and creating a greater chance for one of them to make it past March.
The debate will air on Fox 11 Los Angeles and its YouTube channel live from 6 p.m.-7:30 p.m. on Monday, Jan. 22.
The Associated Press contributed to this report.
Source: Orange County Register
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