Orange County house hunters bought less — and paid less — in November.
Overall, Southern California homebuyers were not deterred by the six-county median sales price hitting its 14th record high of the pandemic era in November, according to DQNews. Mortgage rates a notch above record lows have mixed with an enduring, hearty appetite for larger living quarters to push up prices — though, appreciation rates seem to be cooling. And a possible recession in 2023 might chill the buying pace.
Across the region, 22,426 homes sold, down 1.5% for the month, but up 1.8% in a year. The median sales price hit a record $693,500 — up 0.5% for the month. In a year, the median is up 15.6%. Compare that pace of appreciation to six months earlier when prices were rising 25% a year.
As for Orange County, here is a baker’s dozen of trends my trusty spreadsheet found within the DQNews report on closed transactions for November …
1. Sales: 3,181 existing and new residences sold, down 2.4% from October and down 4% from November 2020.
2. Context: This was the 13th busiest November of the 34 since 1988. Last month’s purchases were 16% above the 10-year average buying pace for November. Since 1988, a typical November sees a one-month sales drop 91% of the time with an average 7.9% decrease from October.
3. Past 12 months? 41,746 Orange County purchases — 22% above the previous 12 months and 19% above the 10-year average.
4. Prices: The countywide $919,000 median for all homes — down 0.1% in a month. It’s up 15% over 12 months vs. gains of 19.3% six months earlier. Record high? $920,000 set in October.
5. Context: Over 10 years, price gains averaged 8.7% annually. The latest performance tops 83% of all 12-month periods since 1988.
6. Pandemic era? Eleven price records have been broken since February 2020. The median’s $164,000 increase equals a $10.67 gain every hour over these 21 months.
Here’s a look into key slices of Orange County data for November …
7. Existing single-family houses: 1,977 sold, down 3% in a year. Median of $1,032,000 — a 17% increase over 12 months.
8. Existing condos: 893 sales, down 4% over 12 months. Median of $650,000 — a 20% increase in a year.
9. Newly built: Builders sold 311 new homes, down 3% in a year. Median of $941,500 — a 0.2% increase over 12 months.
10. Builder share: 9.8% of sales vs. 9.7% a year earlier. Orange County builders’ slice of the market ranks No. 3 among SoCal’s six counties.
And the bigger picture …
11. Rates: How cheap is money? Rates on a 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage averaged 3.01% in the three months ending in November vs. 3.6% in February 2020, just before the pandemic struck. That translates to 8% more buying power for house hunters. At these rates, a buyer with 20% down would pay $3,105 a month on the $919,000 median sale vs. $2,723 on February 2020’s $748,500 median. So during the pandemic era, sale prices rose 23% but just 14% for a theoretical house payment.
12. Supply: The four counties had 24% fewer existing homes officially available to buy in the three months ended in November vs. a year earlier, Realtor.com stats show.
13. Affordability: The combination of higher prices and larger mortgage payments has cut into housing affordability. Chapman University’s single-family affordability index dropped by more than 11% since June.
Around Southern California …
Overall: Sales rose in a trio of the region’s six counties for the month; a trio in a year. Prices rose in four counties in the month; all in the year. Since May, the rate of appreciation has shrunk in five of the six counties.
Los Angeles County: 7,234 sales, down 4% in the month; up 7.7% over 12 months — busiest since 2006. Median? $788,000 after November’s 0.3% dip and a year’s 13% increase. Six months earlier? 25% annualized gain.
Riverside County: 4,197 sales, up 2.4% in the month; up 2.5% over 12 months — busiest since 2006. Median? record $546,750 after November’s 2.2% gain and a year’s 20% increase. Six months earlier? 23% annualized gain.
San Bernardino County: 3,166 sales, up 1.1% in the month; up 5.6% over 12 months — busiest since 2006. Median? record $475,000 after November’s 2.2% gain and a year’s 19% increase. Six months earlier? 17% annualized gain.
San Diego County: 3,646 sales, down 3% in the month; down 7% in a year. Median? record $750,000 after November’s 1.4% gain and a year’s 15% increase. Six months earlier? 23% annualized gain.
Ventura County: 1,002 sales, up 2% in the month; down 0.6% in a year. Median? record $755,000 after November’s 4.1% gain and a year’s 15% increase. Six months earlier? 21% annualized gain.
Jonathan Lansner is the business columnist for the Southern California News Group. He can be reached at jlansner@scng.com
Source: Orange County Register
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