Homebuying drops 13% for inland South County: What cities got hit hardest?

Homebuying in inland South County — including Lake Forest, Mission Viejo, Rancho Santa Margarita and San Juan Capistrano — fell 13 percent this summer vs. a year ago.

It was the slowest-selling third quarter in four years for Orange County’s housing market, as buyers balked at high prices and expensive mortgages while homeowners and builders boosted the supply of residences for sale.

Here’s what my trusty spreadsheet told me when looking at house-hunting patterns at the neighborhood level in 2018’s summer quarter vs. the July-to-September period a year earlier.

CoreLogic found these 14 trends in eight ZIP codes covered by the Orange County Register’s Saddleback News weekly …

1. Purchases: Home sales in this period totaled 1,479 vs. 1,704 a year ago, a decline of 13.2 percent.

2. Who’s up: Prices increased in three of the 8 ZIPs as sales rose in two ZIPs.

3. Countywide: $734,000 median selling price, up 3.4 percent. Orange County sales totaled 9,160 residences, existing and new, vs. 10,350 a year ago, a decline of 11.5 percent. Prices rose in 50 out of 83 Orange County ZIPs and sales were up in 21 out of 83 ZIPs.

Here is how prices and sales moved at the community level …

4. Mission Viejo 92691: $700,000 median, down 0.7 percent. Price rank? 47th of 83. Sales of 171 vs. 212 a year ago, a decline of 19.3 percent.

5. Mission Viejo 92692: $750,000 median, flat in the period. Price rank? No. 36 of 83. Sales of 212 vs. 215 a year ago, a decline of 1.4 percent.

6. Lake Forest 92630: $735,000 median, down 1.7 percent. Price rank? No. 39 of 83. Sales of 258 vs. 345 a year ago, a decline of 25.2 percent.

7. Foothill Ranch 92610: $778,000 median, up 9.3 percent. Price rank? No. 31 of 83. Sales of 44 vs. 45 a year ago, a decline of 2.2 percent.

8. Rancho Santa Margarita 92688: $575,000 median, down 7.3 percent. Price rank? No. 67 of 83. Sales of 164 vs. 250 a year ago, a decline of 34.4 percent.

9. Trabuco/Coto 92679: $1,030,000 median, up 22.8 percent. Price rank? No. 12 of 83. Sales of 147 vs. 178 a year ago, a decline of 17.4 percent.

10. Ladera Ranch/Rancho Mission Viejo 92694: $730,000 median, up 8.8 percent. Price rank? No. 41 of 83. Sales of 330 vs. 309 a year ago, a gain of 6.8 percent.

11. San Juan Capistrano 92675: $816,000 median, down 18.7 percent. Price rank? No. 29 of 83. Sales of 153 vs. 150 a year ago, a gain of 2.0 percent.

Plus, three more countywide trends found this summer vs. a year ago. …

12. Single-family-home resales: 5,618 Orange County sales vs. 6,284 a year ago, a decline of 10.6 percent in the period. Median: $785,500 — a rise of 3.4 percent in the period.

13. Condo resales: 2,429 sales vs. 2,802 a year ago, a decline of 13.3 percent in 12 months. Median: $513,000 — a rise of 4.7 percent in a year.

14. New homes: Builders sold 1,113 residences vs. 1,263 a year ago, a decline of 11.9 percent in 12 months. Median: $985,000 — a rise of 11.6 percent in a year.

Source: Orange County Register